Monday 22 June 2015

Clustering NHL Forwards (using k-means)


How do you classify hockey players? Many would argue to go by the classical six positions (C, LW, RW, LD, RD, G) while some would argue for a rover (see picture above). I suggest a different distinction. Obviously, goalies are their own identity so they're excluded from this analysis. That leaves players which I will further breakdown into forwards and defence. Forwards and defence tend to have very distinct roles with a few exceptions (D.Byfuglien and B.Burns). In this post I am going to focus on forwards. It isn't easy to decide just which position a forward plays, don't bother asking the PHWA (see. the Ovechkin debacle) because they obviously can't tell. NHL.com is no help either since many of their positional declarations are hilarious out of place (ex. Zetterberg is listed as a LW despite taking over 1000 face-offs last season which places him 48th in the entire NHL). Then there is there is the issue of 1st/2nd/3rd/4th line. These roles are usually overstated by most media types and then there is a designation problem. If a player preforms like a 1st liner but his coach players him on the 2nd line? What really are they? I know, deep stuff. Long story short, breaking players down into categories is easier said than done.

K-Means Clustering

Therefore, I set out to with a fun exercise to reclassify forwards based on their playing characteristics. I used k-means clustering to break the players down into 8 categories based on these characteristics. I want to stress that these measurements are meant to reflect a player's playing style not how well or poorly they preformed. The chart below shows the average of each measurement broken down by cluster. I arbitrarily named the clusters myself, you shouldn't read too much into those. Come up with your own if you want. (You should click on that picture if you want to look at the cluster characteristics more carefully.)


Here is a random sample of ten players and which cluster they belong to. Please don't get too upset if you don't like a certain player's cluster. Remember these clusters group players by "playing style" not skill level. 

Cluster Features

Below are some box-and-whisker plots which breakdown the clusters by Corsi%, Age, TOI/GM  and AAV. Here is a quick run through of how to read a box-and-whisker plot:
  • The big solid line going down the whole graph is the mean value for the whole same. Example: The mean Corsi% for all forwards is 50%.
  • Within each box plot is another solid line that marks the median value for that cluster (the middle value of that cluster). Median not the mean.
  • The box itself encompasses the upper and lower quartiles of values, from the 25% to 75% percentile. 
  • The whiskers mark the top and bottom 25%, excluding outliers. 
  • Dots denote outliers.

Notes

  • All-Around, seems like the group a player would want to be in but it still encompasses a range of players from Sidney Crosby to Manny Malhotra.
  • "Safe" Depth is  labelled as such due to them being populated of lower end players (see. AAV), yet their Corsi compares favourably when compared to the Depth cluster of players.
  • High Impact players, do a bit of everything including areas that don't involves scoring ex. draw more penalties than they take while dishing more hits than they receive.
  • Power Forwards,  are big guys (yes, I subjectively looked at the cluster of players for 30 seconds and thought I saw a bunch of perceived power forwards) who prefer to pass more than they shoot but also take more penalties than they draw, probably due to a lack of foot speed.
  • Depth players, while few in numbers (only 13) they dish hits like crazy yet clearly trail in the Corsi%, TOI/GM and AAV categories. 
  • Passers, create a lot of opportunities for their teammates and are wizards at taking the puck away from their opponents more than they give it up.
  • Depth scorers, these are typically young players who have been held down in the lineup by their coach yet can really shoot the lights out.
  • Scoring Wingers, are very similar do depth scorers yet have been given a larger playing opportunity.
  • I would love to do the same exercise for defenceman but their doesn't seem to be enough distinction using my current attribute metrics. Maybe I will discover a better way to classify them in the future, who knows.
Please let me know if you have any thoughts or questions. You can comment below or reach me via email me here: DTMAboutHeart@gmail.com or via Twitter here: @DTMAboutHeart

44 comments:

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  26. I’m from USA am here to give my testimony about Dr Voke who helped me cure my HERPES (HSV), i want to inform the public how i was cured from (HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS), i visited different hospital but they gave me list of drugs like Famvir, Zovirax, and Valtrex which is very expensive to treat the symptoms and never cured me. Three months ago a friend suggested that I try herbal medicine; from a very powerful herbal doctor called (doctorvoke@gmail.com) I looked up his blog on the internet site and indeed he have had immense success with his product. There were lot of persons posting their testimony about how he cured them. when i contacted him he gave me hope and send a Herbal medicine to me that i took and it seriously worked for me, my HERPES result just came out negative. (doctorvoke@gmail.com)

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  27. My ex-husband and I had always managed to stay friendly after our divorce in February 2017. But I always wanted to get back together with him, All it took was a visit to this spell casters website last December, because my dream was to start a new year with my husband, and live happily with him.. This spell caster requested a specific love spell for me and my husband, and I accepted it. And this powerful spell caster began to work his magic. And 48 hours after this spell caster worked for me, my husband called me back for us to be together again, and he was remorseful for all his wrong deeds. My spell is working because guess what: My “husband” is back and we are making preparations on how to go to court and withdraw our divorce papers ASAP. This is nothing short of a miracle. Thank you Dr Emu for your powerful spells. Words are not enough. here is his Email: emutemple@gmail.com or call/text him on his WhatsApp +2347012841542    

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  31. Greatest thanks to Dr Eromosele for his herbal drugs that he prepared for me and when i start using it in just 2weeks i was completely cured and that ended my HERPES SIMPLEX 1&2 DISEASE i am so happy and grateful to Dr Eromosele . after reading about him on a testimony of Jason Cash on a blogger. I knew suddenly Dr Eromosele was the right Doctor to cure my HERPES SIMPLEX 1&2 DISEASE. I discuss with Dr Eromosele and he prepared a herbal medicine for me and when it got sent to me in South Korean. I used the herbal medicine and 2weeks and i went to check up again. after 15years of suffering from HERPES SIMPLEX 1&2 at last i am smiling once again. Dr Eromosele also has remedy to others disease like COLD SORES, HIV/AIDS, DIABETES, CANCER, HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE AND MANY MORE. I oblige everyone to contact this powerful herbalist Dr Eromosele and be free from your suffering. contact his WhatsApp line: +2348075799423 or his Email:dreromosele156@gmail.com

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  32. Love never gives up, never loses faith, is always hopeful, and endures through every circumstances. I give God all the glory for bringing Lord Zakuza into my life for helping me get my wife back that got me divorced for one year. I was the last person on earth to accept the fact that spells exist or work not until I was referred to Lord Zakuza online to who has helped so many people with his powerful spells. I had no other option than to give it a try because 3 months after the divorce, I was demoted at my place of work due to depression for I don't know what to do to get her back but thank God today for using Lord Zakuza to get my happiness and love life back within 48 hours. Just last week here, I was promoted back to my position and I'm here to share my own experience with this man called Lord Zakuza. I don't know what you are going through today but know that in all situation there's always a way out. Lord Zakuza also prepares spells like Lottery spell, job spell, spell to stop a divorce, spell cure for any diseases, protection spell, spell to become successful and wealthy E.T.C. Contact him now for any help via TEXT OR WHATSAPP MESSENGER with: +1 740-573-9483 and Email on: Lordzakuza7@gmail.com

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  36. I admire the work of DR AMBER who uses his spells for good. This man is a very strong Haiti Voodoo Doc who gives out numbers that can never fails. I am a winner of $200,000.00 dollars today because Dr Amber casted a lottery spell for me and I am very grateful to him for giving me the right numbers to play the lottery and now, my long awaited dream has finally come to pass and I thank Dr Amber for his help. If you need his help, you can call/text him with +1 (808) 481-5132 or email: amberlottotemple@yahoo.com or you go to: https://amberlottotemple.com

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  37. I've been a carpenter for the past 18 years and playing the Lottery has always been my thing and my Wife supports me but winning big funds is always an issue. My Wife is quite good at surfing the internet and she came across an AD of DR AMBER who helps people that believes in his work. My Wife & I emailed him for help to win the Lottery and guess what!!! He did a spell prayer and gave us some digits to play the Lottery. We did as he instructed and we were notified after 10 days that we'd won $245,600,000 MILLION DOLLARS from the NY LOTTERY POWERBALL that we played. We can't really explain the feeling we had when we heard the amount we WON for we were so happy. Everything seemed like a dream for some minutes till we realized that it was REALITY" LOL". Anyways, we are here to appreciate DR AMBER and also to share to you all the wonderful experiences we had with him. To get his contact info for WhatsApp/Call/Text, Visit: amberlottotemple.com or E-mail: amberlottotemple@yahoo.com

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