Tuesday, 31 March 2015

xSV% - Team Data

After my original post looking at xSV% exclusively at the individual goalie level I received a few requests to look at the same data but at the team level. Simple enough and presented below is xSV% team data from 2002-2014. If you didn't read my original post on xSV% you can do so here, but I am also going to follow up and reiterate what exactly xSV% entails.

What xSV% is:

  • Expected Save Percentage based on a 110 game moving average of the opposing shooter at the time of each shot faced by a goalie
  • Better players typically have a higher shooting percentage, therefore if a team limits their opponent's best players from shooting the puck, they will raise their own ExpSV%
  • Forwards typically have a higher shooting percentage, if a team can limit the amount of shots taken by an opposing teams forwards and instead force them to rely on their defenceman to generate shots, they will raise their own ExpSV%
  • ExpSV% is highly influenced by era. As shown in the graph below representing the league average Expected Save Percentage for each season with the lockout lost season shown by the red line, scoring has been down in recent years since the lockout.
  • This era influence is the big reason why the 110 game moving average is necessary. Simply using a single season worth of data can sometimes not be enough. Likewise, using a player's career average shooting percentage can provide misleading results.
    • For example, the ever great Jaromir Jagr has a career shooting percentage of 13.7% that is heavily influenced by his earlier playing days. Jagr hasn't had a season of shooting that efficiently since 2005-2006. Therefore a rolling average helps more accurately depict his current conversion ability. 

What xSV% is not:

  • An all encompassing, all-knowing stat that gives the exact Expected Save Percentage for each team
  • A definitive ranking of how well teams manage to play defence


Below is all the team level data. Play around with it and please send me any feedback/questions you might have. Enjoy!


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