Thursday, 21 May 2015

NHL Expected Goals Model


Did anyone ever consider shot quality? 

UPDATE: This model has since been improved upon and shown here. This post still provides good background on the basics of the model.

Shot quality and possession metrics have always been somewhat a point of contention. Expected Goals (ExpG) helps to combine these two facets in hopes of providing better information about the game. Expected Goals are not a novel concept, ones have been presented previously by Brian Macdonald for hockey and the original motivation for my study by Michael Caley's soccer version. I hope to lay out my ExpG model in a way that makes hockey sense, where everyone can understand why each factor was added into the model. The model works by assigning a value to each shot taken over the course of a season based on the model's predicted probability of that shot resulting in a goal. To calculate a team's final ExpG all you have to do is sum up all of these probabilities and there you have it. First I will breakdown the methodology that goes into this model. If you don't care and just want to see the results skip down to the Expected Goals section or check out the Expected Goals tab above.

Methodology


My model uses a logistic regression to arrive at each goal probability. Basically, it uses a bunch of independent variables to produce the odds of binary outcome occurring, in our case, yes a goal was scored or no a goal wasn't scored. I reran the logistic regression for each season instead of using one big logistic regression. So far my model only accounts for 5-on-5 situations. This helps to account for minor changes in style of league play yet the regression coefficients didn't actually change much year-to-year. Here are the factors taken into account by the model:
  • Adjusted Distance
    • The farther a shot the lower likelihood it results in a goal 
  • Type of Shot
    • Snap/Slap/Backhand/Wraparound/etc...
  • Rebound - Yes/No?
    • A rebound is defined as a shot taking place less than 4
  • Score Situation
    • Up a goal/down a goal/tied/etc…


Results


In the two graphs below you can see how well ExpG, both offensively and defensively, correlates with actual results. Each point represents one team from one season, except 2012-2013 was removed due to the lockout. 



There will always be some outliers in a given season but I think the model goes a relatively good job. The chart below shows that ExpG comes out on top when compared to Corsi and Scoring Chances in terms of correlation to real goals for and against in a given season.


Goals For Goals Against
ExpG 0.58 0.6
Corsi 0.493 0.57
Scoring Chances 0.53 0.562

Future Work


In the next coming weeks I will be focusing my efforts on two different aspects of this model. Firstly, I will investigate how well it predicts future goals, from one season to the next as well as something similar to Micah Blake McCurdy did with score-adjusted Corsi. Secondly, I will be looking at other factors to add into the model. I plan on adding rush shots as a factor, though the current state of my data will require some tweaking before I can do that. I also plan on exploring the effects of incorporating shooter talent and goaltender talent. I also plan on releasing ExpG at the player level and use aspects of this model to better xSV%. 

Expected Goals


I just wanted to thank War-On-Ice and Sam Ventura for the data used in this project. Finally, here are the results below. Note that, dGF/dGA/dGF%, are calculated as actual minus expected. I will give this spreadsheet its own tab at the top of this site too. Please let me know any questions or feedback you might have. Enjoy!



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  2. What is the formula for expected goals? is it calculated using linear weights,
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  19. Are you in bad need of love spell to bring back your ex lover or reunite your marriage? contact Dr uneme for fast 48 hours solution. I had a problem with my husband a year and six months ago, which lead us apart. When he broke up with me, I was confuse and did not know what to do to get him back, I felt so empty inside. Until i came across Dr uneme on the internet on how He has helped so many people solve there various problem. I emailed Him and I told Him my problem and i did what he asked me to do for him to help me, to briefly make the long story short, Before I knew it, in less than 48 HOURS, my Husband gave me a call and he came back to me and told me he was sorry about what was going on between the both of us. Finally I am writing this testimony to offer my thanks and deep gratitude to you Dr uneme for keeping to your words and your promises in bringing him back to me in just 48 hours of your powerful spell casting, and for using your gifted and great powers to bring him back. If you need his help, you can email him at ( unemespellben@gmail.com ) or add Dr uneme on WhatsApp ( +2348143813120 ) or call him get all your problems solve No problem is too big for him to solve..Contact him now Linda from united state THANKS TO Dr uneme

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  20. Hello I'm From Memphis Tennessee, USA I feel so joyful today because of the help Dr  Sunny has rendered to me for  getting my Husband back with his spell. I have been married for 4 years and it has been so terrible because my husband was cheating on me and was seeking for a divorce. But when i came across Dr Sunny Email, on the internet posted by a lady, i decided to get in touch with him and i explained my situation to him and then seek his help but to my greatest surprise he told me that he will help me with my case for there is no problem without a solution. Here i am celebrating because my Husband is back home and am really enjoying my marriage, what a great celebration. i will keep on testifying on the internet because Dr Sunny is truly a real spell caster. Why not contact Dr Sunny now if you are facing any challenges in your relationship life. Email solutioncentre911@gmail.com Also specialize i1) love Spell
    2) Spells divorce
    3) Spells of marriage
    4.) pregnancy problems
    contact this great man if you have a problem for a lasting solution Through Email: solutioncentre911@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  21. I have been suffering from (HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS) disease for the past one years and had constant pain, especially in my knees. During the first year,I had faith in God that i would be healed someday.This disease started circulating all over my body and i have been taking treatment from my doctor, few weeks ago i came on search on the internet if i could get any information concerning the prevention of this disease, on my search i saw a testimony of someone who has been healed from (HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS) by this Man Dr ehimare and she also gave the email address: drgodwinsolutionhome@gmail.com of this man and advise we should contact him for any sickness that he would be of help, so i wrote to Dr Goodwin telling him about my (HERPES Virus) he told me not to worry that i was going to be cured!! hmm i never believed it,, well after all the procedures and remedy given to me by this man few weeks later i started experiencing changes all over me as the Dr Goodwin assured me that i have cured,after some time i went to my doctor to confirmed if i have be finally healed behold it was TRUE, So friends my advise is if you have such sickness or any other at all you can email drgodwinsolutionhome@gmail.com or you can WhatsApp him on +2348054615060

    ReplyDelete
  22. HOW DR SUNNY HELP ME TO FIX MY BROKEN RELATIONSHIP.
    Contact His Email:solutioncentre911@gmail.com
    via what-app;+2349056393169

    Hello my Kathy George, Am here to testify of a great and powerful spell caster named Dr Sunny, I was so confused and devastated when my Husband left me for another girl. I needed him back desperately because i loved him so much. So i contacted this great spell caster for help. He helped me cast a return love spell on my husband and just within 40hours my husband came back to me crying and begging for my forgiveness. Dr Sunny released him to know how much i loved and wanted him back. And He also opened his eyes to picture how much love we have share together. As I am writing this testimony right now i am the most happiest woman on earth. I want to recommend this great spell caster to anyone that truly needs an urgent solution to a love break up Email him at:solutioncentre911@gmail.com or What-App his phone number on +2349056393169 Also specialize on
    1) love Spell
    2) Spells divorce
    3) Spells of marriage
    4) pregnancy problems
    5) Healing spell
    contact this great man if you have a problem for a lasting solution Through Email: solutioncentre911@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hi Guys….I just want to say a big thanks to ( Dr Ogbe ) for what he has done for me and my family by helping me to win lottery. I won Five Hundred and Thirty Three Million Us Dollars. (($533,000,000.00)). His lottery spell is the best and so amazing. My life is now balance and i am Now Very Rich As i have always wanted and i am out of doubt. Are you looking for a real and genuine spell caster to help you win big in any kind of lottery you play? you can contact DrOgbe , today all your plan to ever win Big in Lottery will Come True and work out well for you. His spell very real and genuine i can not still believe it And His spell also work very fast. Thank you so much Dr Ogbe for dedicating your time to cast the Lottery spell for me. I got my bills paid and my debt cleared and am still mega rich. If you need a real And Genuine spell caster to help you Win lottery,kindly contact him for fast and urgent Help Email: drogbeherbalcure5@gmail.com whatsapp numbers +2347063915230THANK YOU FOR READING

    ReplyDelete
  24. What a wonderful and a straight forward spell caster that has brought back joy and happiness into my life! Am giving this testimony because am so happy, I want to thank Dr. Osasu for the great thing He has done in my life , He brought happiness back to my life, I never believed in spell casters until my life fell apart when my lover of 6 years decided to call it quit almost when we wanted to get married. I was so emotional breakdown to the extent i could not do anything reasonable again, after 2months in pain before an old friend of mine introduced me to a spell caster on line called Dr Osasu, this was after I have been scammed by various fake spell casters. I was introduced me to Dr Osasu a true Spell Caster. In less than 24 hours i saw wonders, my lover came back to me and my life got back just like a completed puzzle, and after 1month later we got married and it was just like a dream to me because i thought i had lost him forever. Thank you Dr. Osasu for helping me but most of all, Your Honesty and Fast Accurate Results. email: Drosasu25@gmail.com WhatsApp Number: +2347064365391

    ReplyDelete
  25. I have been suffering from Herpes for the past 3 years and 8 months, and ever since then i have been taking series of treatment but there was no improvement until i came across testimonies of Dr Osasu on how he has been curing different people from different diseases all over the world, then i contacted him as well. After our conversation he sent me the medicine which i took according to his instructions. When i was done taking the herbal medicine i went for a medical checkup and to my greatest surprise i was cured from Herpes. My heart is so filled with joy. If you are suffering from Herpes or any other disease you can contact Dr Osasu today on this Email address: drosasu25@gmail.com or WhatsApp him on this Tell.Number +2347064365391
    ….
    Dr.Osasu also cures:
    1. HIV / AIDS
    2. HERPES 1/2
    3. CANCER
    4. ALS (Lou Gehrig’s disease)
    5. Hepatitis B

    ReplyDelete
  26. am here to give my testimony about Dr latifah who helped me.. i want to inform the public how i was cured from (HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS) by salami, i visited different hospital but they gave me list of drugs like Famvir, Zovirax, and Valtrex which is very expensive to treat the symptoms and never cured me. I was browsing through the Internet searching for remedy on HERPES and i saw comment of people talking about how Dr latifah cured them. when i contacted her she gave me hope and send a Herbal medicine to me that i took for just 2 weeks and it seriously worked for me, my HERPES result came out negative. I am so happy as i am sharing this testimony. My advice to you all who thinks that there is no cure for herpes that is Not true just contact her and get cure from Dr maam healing herbal cure of all kinds of sickness you may have like
    (1) CANCER,
    (2) DIABETES,
    (3) HIV&AIDS,
    (4) URINARY TRACT INFECTION,
    (5) CANCER,
    (6) IMPOTENCE,
    (7) BARENESS/INFERTILITY
    (8) DIARRHEA
    (9) ASTHMA
    (10)SIMPLEX HERPES AND GENITAL
    (11)COLD SORE
    HERPES. he also cure my friend from cervical cancer Email: maamtifah@gmail.com or whatsapp hER on +27605775963

    ReplyDelete
  27. HOW DR. UNEME brought back my ex lover unemespellben@gmail.com
    Am DONNA, am from UK. After been in a relationship with my Boyfriend for 1 year now and we were planning to get married soon and all of a sudden he left me for another girl. of a truth, I really love this guy and never can I imagine life without him. I further tried all my best to get him back but all my effort to get him back in my life did not work out. It was on this faithful day, I came across some Testimonies on a website about this great spell caster called (Dr. UNEME) any persons claimed that he help them to renew their relationship and bring their ex lover back, I had to contact him because he was my last hope. I contacted him through his email and he assured me that in three days time my boyfriend is going to leave the other girl and come back to me and it was a very great surprise to see my boyfriend coming back to me after three days the spell was done. I am so very happy today that he came back to me and i achieved this with the help of Dr UNEME I equally want to use this opportunity to Tell/Advice to as many who need their ex back, if you need his help you can Contact him through
    EMAIL: unemespellben@gmail.com WHATSAPP HIM @ +2348143813120


    Thank You Once Again Dr.UNEME

    ReplyDelete
  28. I want to thank Dr Osasu a very powerful spell caster who help me to bring
    my husband back to me, few month ago i have a serious problem with my
    husband, to the extend that he left the house, and he started dating
    another woman and he stayed with the woman, i tried all i can to bring him
    back, but all my effort was useless until till the day my friend came to my
    house and i told her every thing that had happened between me and my
    husband, then she told me of a powerful spell caster who help her when she
    was in the same problem I then contact Dr Osasu and told him every think
    and he told me not to worry my self again that my husband will come back to
    me after he has cast a spell on him,i thought it was a joke, after he had
    finish casting the spell, he told me that he had just finish casting the
    spell, to my greatest surprise within that 3 days, my husband really came
    back begging me to forgive him, if you need his help you can contact him
    with his email address [drosasu25@gmail.com or directory y on whasapp
    +2347064365391

    ReplyDelete
  29. HOW DR. UNEME brought back my ex lover unemespellben@gmail.com
    Am DONNA, am from UK. After been in a relationship with my Boyfriend for 1 year now and we were planning to get married soon and all of a sudden he left me for another girl. of a truth, I really love this guy and never can I imagine life without him. I further tried all my best to get him back but all my effort to get him back in my life did not work out. It was on this faithful day, I came across some Testimonies on a website about this great spell caster called (Dr. UNEME) any persons claimed that he help them to renew their relationship and bring their ex lover back, I had to contact him because he was my last hope. I contacted him through his email and he assured me that in three days time my boyfriend is going to leave the other girl and come back to me and it was a very great surprise to see my boyfriend coming back to me after three days the spell was done. I am so very happy today that he came back to me and i achieved this with the help of Dr UNEME I equally want to use this opportunity to Tell/Advice to as many who need their ex back, if you need his help you can Contact him through
    EMAIL: unemespellben@gmail.com WHATSAPP HIM @ +2348143813120


    Thank You Once Again Dr.UNEME

    ReplyDelete
  30. Are you looking for the best help? Have you been searching all over to find a professional and real African traditional herbalist? If your answer to these questions is “YES”, then you have come to the right place! We are determined to offer exactly what you’re seeking: Fast and everlasting results! From love problems to money and Family, we provide the most authentic remedies you’ve ever encountered.
    All my spells are genuinely proven .No spell has ever failed to bring about the desired effects. Best spells ever from the best experienced spell caster. I help where others have failed.
    Check from my list below and point to your problem. However, even if your problem
    does not fall in the category below, don’t hesitate to email it to ME, I shall venture into it and I will of course cut open your problem and solve it.
    (1) If you want your ex back.
    (2) If you always have bad dreams.
    (3) You want to be promoted at work or in your offic WSe.
    (4) You want women/men to run after you.
    (5) If you want a child.
    (6) You want to be extremely rich.
    (7)You want to tie your husband/wife to be yours forever.
    (8) If you need financial assistance.
    (9) Have you been scammed and you want to recover you lost money.
    (10) If you want to stop your divorce.
    (11) If you want to divorce your husband.
    (12) Pregnancy Ritual to conceive baby
    (13) Guarantee you win the troubling court cases & divorce no matter how what Stage
    Email. droguduspelltemple.1@gmail.com WhatsApp at. +23408129150818.

    ReplyDelete
  31. In our simple life, love plays a very specific role. Now we are able to make your love life healthy and no space for any type of trouble. These all are possible with the help of Dr. EKPEN of SOLUTION TEMPLE. He helped me cast a spell that brought my long lost lover back within 48hours who left me for another woman. You can also contact him on (EKPENTEMPLE@GMAIL.COM) and be happy forever like am now with his experience.

    ReplyDelete
  32. My name is Valary West.I'm from Canada, My husband and I have been married for about 7 yrs now. We were happily married with two kids, a boy and a girl. 3 months ago, I started to notice some strange behaviour from him and a few weeks later I found out that my husband is seeing someone else. He started coming home late from work, he hardly care about me or the kids anymore, Sometimes he goes out and doesn't even come back home for about 2-3 days. I did all I could to rectify this problem but all to no avail. I became very worried and needed help.

    As I was browsing through I am very happy today with my family. My name is West Valary  living in Canada, My husband left me for good 3 months now, and i love him so much, i have been looking for a way to get him back since then. i have tried many options but he did not come back, until i met a friend that darted me to Dr. Odumeje a spell caster, who helped me to bring back my husband after 48 hours. Me and my husband are living happily together today, That man is great, you can contact him via email odumejetemple@gmail.com .

    Now i will advice any serious persons that found themselves in this kind of problem to contact him now a fast solution without stress.. He always hello, now i call him my father. contact him now he is always online email odumejetemple@gmail.com or contact him on his whatsapp mobile line +2349012479806

    you can also contact me for more info about the DR here is my email. westvalary@gmail.com   

    ReplyDelete
  33. HOW DR. UNEME brought back my ex lover unemespellben@gmail.com
    Am DONNA, am from UK. After been in a relationship with my Boyfriend for 1 year now and we were planning to get married soon and all of a sudden he left me for another girl. of a truth, I really love this guy and never can I imagine life without him. I further tried all my best to get him back but all my effort to get him back in my life did not work out. It was on this faithful day, I came across some Testimonies on a website about this great spell caster called (Dr. UNEME) any persons claimed that he help them to renew their relationship and bring their ex lover back, I had to contact him because he was my last hope. I contacted him through his email and he assured me that in three days time my boyfriend is going to leave the other girl and come back to me and it was a very great surprise to see my boyfriend coming back to me after three days the spell was done. I am so very happy today that he came back to me and i achieved this with the help of Dr UNEME I equally want to use this opportunity to Tell/Advice to as many who need their ex back, if you need his help you can Contact him through
    EMAIL: unemespellben@gmail.com WHATSAPP HIM @ +2348143813120


    Thank You Once Again Dr.UNEME

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
  35. My ex-husband and I had always managed to stay friendly after our divorce in February 2017. But I always wanted to get back together with him, All it took was a visit to this spell casters website last December, because my dream was to start a new year with my husband, and live happily with him.. This spell caster requested a specific love spell for me and my husband, and I accepted it. And this powerful spell caster began to work his magic. And 48 hours after this spell caster worked for me, my husband called me back for us to be together again, and he was remorseful for all his wrong deeds. My spell is working because guess what: My “husband” is back and we are making preparations on how to go to court and withdraw our divorce papers ASAP. This is nothing short of a miracle. Thank you Dr Emu for your powerful spells. Words are not enough. here is his Email: emutemple@gmail.com or call/text him on his WhatsApp +2347012841542    

    ReplyDelete
  36. If you don't care and just want to see the results skip down to the Expected Goals section or check out the Expected Goals tab above.


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  38. Am sharing this testimony to partners suffering in their relationships because there is an enduring solution. My husband left me and our 4 kids for another woman for 1 year. I tried to be strong just for my kids but I could not control the pains that torment my heart. I was hurt and confused. I needed a help, so i did a research on the internet and came across a site where I saw that Dr. Godday a spell caster,who can help get lot lovers back within few hours I contacted him and he did a special prayer and spells for me. To my surprises, after few days, my husband came back home. That was how we reunited again and there was a lot of love, joy and peace in the family. You can as well contact Dr. Godday, a powerful spell-caster for solutions on his contact Email: goddayspiritualhome@gmail.com Whats app only +1{919}4956404

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